Leading Indicators

The Leading Indicators publication includes a composite leading indicator, similar to the national index, for Ohio and the eight largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) . United States data are also included.

• About Leading Indicators... provides technical information on leading indicator data.

 

Leading Indicators

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About Leading Indicators...

Data Source

The composite index for each area is derived from historical data on six components:

1. Valuation by U.S. Census Bureau of housing authorized by building permits.
2. Initial claims for unemployment insurance from the Labor Market Review.
3. Average weekly hours in manufacturing from the Labor Market Review.
4. Domestic automobile production from Ward's Communications, Dearborn, Michigan.
5. National composite index of economic indicators from The Conference Board.
6. Yield curve (the difference between 1-year and 10-year Treasury bonds of constant maturities) from the Federal Reserve. See "Treasury constant maturities" on the Selected Interest Rates.

Level of Detail

The composite index is designed to anticipate changes in the local economy as measured by total nonagricultural wage and salary employment.

Frequency

Monthly.

Time Period Covered

Thirteen months of current data are published for the composite index and its components. Data tables for Ohio and Metropolitan Statistical Areas contain monthly information beginning January 1990.

Geographic Areas

Leading Indicators are published for Ohio and the eight largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Developed by the Office of Management and Budget, Metropolitan Statistical Areas are integrated geographic regions comprised of at least one city and adjacent communities. Metropolitan Statistical Areas make it possible for Federal statistical agencies to utilize the same boundaries when publishing statistical data.

Uses

To provide notice three to six months in advance of expected economic performance for economic planning.

Limitations

Ohio's Leading Indicators are designed to predict changes in employment, not output.

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